Half-Year 2025 Wine Investment Outlook: Where to Lean In, Where to Hold Back

 

The first half of 2025 has set a clear tone for the fine wine market: prices are softening, but trading activity is on the rise. According to Cult Wines’ half-year report, the market is entering a stabilisation phase. For collectors and investors, this means one thing—opportunity lies in discipline and selectivity.

Regional Market Performance

Some of the world’s most established regions are showing sharp corrections. Weighted price changes through July 2025 reveal the following:

 

  • Rhône: −7.8% – steepest decline, with most vintages falling except 2019.

  • Bordeaux: −7.2% – strong trade volumes, but prices for 2017–2019 remain weak.

  • United States: −5.4% – cult Napa labels in particular are under pressure.

  • Italy: −5.4% – softness across the board, led by Super Tuscans.

  • Champagne: −5.3% – relatively resilient, especially prestige cuvées.

  • Burgundy: −2.9% – still soft, but selective vintages and producers are holding firm.

Standout Performers

Despite overall declines, certain wines delivered exceptional returns in 2025:

  • Chateau Haut-Batailley 2017 (Bordeaux) – +146%

  • Perrier Jouet Belle Epoque 2007 (Champagne) – +127%

  • Kistler Les Noisetiers 2019 (Sonoma) – +87%

  • Prieure Roch Clos de Vougeot Grand Cru 2021 (Burgundy) – +70%

  • Andre Perret Condrieu Coteaux Chery 2018 (Rhône) – +63%

These outliers prove that even in down cycles, rare quality and scarcity can still command premiums.

Opportunities to Accumulate

  • Bordeaux Classics: Vintages like 2000, 2005, and 2009 remain resilient. 2022 may offer entry points at the right discount.

  • Selective Burgundy: Established years (2010, 2012, 2015, 2016) are safer bets; focus on elite producers.

  • Prestige Champagne: Houses with global demand continue to hold value—accumulate on temporary softness.

  • Value in the US: Mid-tier producers such as Ridge provide stability, unlike inflated cult Napa labels.

Risks to Avoid

  • Rhône trophy wines at inflated valuations

  • Napa cults priced for perfection, now under pressure

  • Bordeaux 2017–2019, broadly oversupplied

  • Young Burgundy vintages (2017, 2018, 2021, 2022) with softer demand

Strategy for 2025 and Beyond

  1. Entry Discipline: Target regional discounts in line with average declines (5–15%).

  2. Liquidity First: Focus only on wines with at least two trades this year.

  3. Vintage Bias: Lean on proven, mature years over recent oversupplied vintages.

  4. Producer Discipline: Double down on benchmark estates with enduring global demand.

Final Word

The first half of 2025 confirms what seasoned investors already know: wine markets reward patience and selectivity. With global prices under pressure but liquidity rising, now is the time to reposition portfolios into vintages and producers that history—and collectors—will favor for decades to come.
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